Molecular Endotypes of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Latent Class Analysis of Two Multicenter Observational Cohorts

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) causes irreversible fibrosis of the lung parenchyma. While antifibrotic therapy can slow IPF progression, treatment response is variable. There exists a critical need to develop a precision medicine approach to IPF. Objective: To identify and validate biologically driven molecular endotypes of IPF. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was independently performed in prospectively recruited discovery (n=875) and validation (n=347) cohorts. Twenty-five plasma biomarkers associated with fibrogenesis served as class-defining variables. The association between molecular endotype and 4-year transplant-free survival was tested using multivariable Cox regression adjusted for baseline confounders. Endotype-dependent differential treatment response to future antifibrotic exposure was then assessed in a pooled cohort of patients naïve to antifibrotic therapy at time of biomarker measurement (n=555). Results: LCA independently identified two latent classes in both cohorts (p<0.0001). WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 (WFDC2) was the most important determinant of class membership across cohorts. Membership in Class 2 was characterized by higher biomarker concentrations and higher risk of death or transplantation (discovery: HR 2.02 [95% CI 1.64–2.48]; p<0.001; validation: HR 1.95 [1.34–2.82]; p<0.001). In pooled analysis, significant heterogeneity in treatment effect was observed between endotypes (pinteraction=0.030), with a favorable antifibrotic response in Class 2 (HR 0.64 [0.45–0.93]; p=0.018) but not in Class 1 (HR 1.19 [0.77–1.84]; p=0.422). Conclusions: In this multicohort study, we identified two novel molecular endotypes of IPF with divergent clinical outcomes and response to antifibrotics. Pending further validation, these endotypes could enable a precision medicine approach for future IPF clinical trials.